The NFL this weekend September 26th to September 30th of 2013

The NFL this weekend September 26th to September 30th of 2013

Week 4 is generally the week where all good teams, that is teams with history, good coaches and good players, put it all together and start executing however this year may prove the exception.  Baltimore looks to be back in the saddle, Dallas is re-surging (it is their turn to win the NFC East this year), New Orleans has welcomed back their coach with 3 straight victories yet we do not see selecting them this week as skillful meanwhile the great Patriot defense, dormant since the 2009 season started when Brushci, Vrabel and company left the fold, has reasserted themselves as a force to be reckoned with and cannot be ignored. This is how we believe things truly are...

Main Selections

Primary Selection

Part of our new format is ranking our selections, that is 1) is our top selection of the week and so on.  

1) 09/29/13 - (10/23) Cincinnati (-5.0) AT (19/10) Cleveland (+5.0)

Cincinnati is the favorite based on wins against a struggling Pittsburgh Steelers franchise and a Green Bay team that seems to have lost a step this year after losing to the extremely over-rated (as we see it)  Chicago Bears.  The Browns' defense is 6th in total yards, 7th against the run and 12th against the pass after drafting only defense until the 7th round. They dumped Holmgren as president and traded Richardson for a 1st round pick while bringing in Rob Chudzinski as head coach, Jim Brown as Jim Brown and Norv Turner, an outstanding OC, to turn around the offense this year. Brown called Richardson "ordinary" which applies to Weeden as well.  Turner loves to pass and with the Browns' running game finding its way Cleveland needs to.  The final piece of the puzzle was starting Cleveland native Brian Hoyer, Bill Belichick's choice to fill in for Tom Brady if the situation arose after Cassel left in 2009 until 2012, last week and although he threw 3 int's he also threw 3 TD's and looked a lot like Brady operating the 2 minute drill in the final 2 minutes of the game to throw for the winning score. These teams play each other twice every year and seem to beat each other without respect to the standings At almost 2-1 the Browns seem to be the one to back in this match as our WOOF WOOF GO for the second week in a row after winning at a whopping 5-2 last week.

Selection:   (19/10) Cleveland Browns (+5.0) 


Secondary Selection(s)

Next on our new format of ranking our selections is where we offer 2 more picks that we think are very likely to win but whose odds are a lot lower than our WOOF WOOF GO. They are both numbered 2).

2) 09/29/13 - (20/29) Seattle (-3.0) AT (5/4) Houston (+3.0)

 Seattle lost 6 of 8 road games last year.  Thus far this year in their only road game they beat an erratic Carolina squad 12-7.  The Seahawk's top 3 receivers are averaging 3 catches a game for 50 yards, pretty ordinary. Marshawn Lynch has neither fumbled nor run for over 100 yards yet this year. Seattle’s defense is ranked 1st overall however that is of limited significance as it is based on home games against 32nd ranked Jacksonville, a 49ers squad that has scored 10 points total in their last 2 games and a 12-7 Week 1 game in Carolina.  The Texans are very tough at home, where this game is being played.  They lost Andre Johnson for most of the second half last week in Baltimore where coincidentally they lost the game but hope to have him back Sunday. The Houston D is ranked 2nd in total yards and against the pass and will only improve as Ed Reed gets more game action. 5/4 is not a big price nevertheless we see it as excellent value in this situation.

Selection:  (5/4) Houston Texans (+3.0)

2) 09/29/13 - (11/10) New England (+2.0) AT (10/13) Atlanta (-2.0)

Next is our other secondary selection ranked equally with the one above. Atlanta's offense, so steady for so long seems to have slowed a step or two while their defense, still very good against the run, has allowed an awful lot of yards so far. This season the Falcons have only won once, outlasting St. Louis to win by 7 while dropping games to up-and-coming Miami and a rejuvenated Saints squad. It's not going to get any easier for them this week as they face the 2nd ranked defense of the New England Patriots. The Pats defense has only allowed 13 points in the last two games and continues to improve as rookies Vellano, Buchanan and Ryan gain experience.  The re-vitalized play of Gregory and Arrington coupled with the expected production from Talib, Dennard and McCourty (with rookie Ryan) give New England as good a group of DB's as anyone. A very solid group of Linebackers starring Mayo, Spikes and Hightower and DLinemen starring Chandler Jones, featuring Vince Wilfork and guest starringTommy Kelly and Rob Ninkovich (who also plays linebacker),  with depth all round, makes this years defense reminiscent of the Superbowl years.  Gronkowski should be back giving Brady a much needed experienced pass catcher with game-breaking abilities and will allow Sudfeld to relax and develop.  With Edelman out of the slot and the fast developing Thompkins outside the Patriots should again have a very good passing game that will help their 12th ranked running game to improve enough to return to the top 10 and then some.  We see the Patriots breaking 40 points for the first time this season (they left 14 unnecessary points on the table last week in favor of working on development) and holding the Falcon to the low 20's or less.  Definitely the game we see as the most likely winner and although 11-10 is only a bit better than even money you seldom see New England at those odds for a regular season game especially when they are undefeated.    

Selection:  (11/10) New England Patriots (+2.0)

Tertiary Selection(s)

Next on our new format of ranking our selections is where we offer an indeterminate number of picks we think offer good value but are either more unpredictable or are at a price too favorable to ignore than our primary or secondary selections.  They are all numbered 3). 

3) 09/30/13 - (12/5) Miami (+6.5) AT (5/14) New Orleans (-6.5)

The first game in this section features the undefeated Miami Dolphins visiting the also 3-0 New Orleans Saints. The Saints are very tough to beat in their home dome and are riding the wave of the return of coach Payton.  Drew Brees has been passing like crazy (of course) and the Saints' running game is yet again suspect.  Miami on the other hand is perhaps one of this year’s big surprises (along with Kansas City) in the surprising AFC East (they play the Saints’ NFC South Division this year) which is undefeated outside their division and has handed their NFC South opponents 4 straight losses.  It is looking like Tannehill is for real and the Dolphins defense is currently ranked a very solid 8^th after beating highly rated Atlanta and Indy.  The home field does give the Saints an edge but 12-5 is too juicy to pass up the way the Fish are playing.      

Selection:  (12/5) Miami Dolphins (+6.5) 

3) 09/29/13 - (33/20) New York (+3.5) AT (10/19) Tennessee (-3.5)

Next we have another member of the AFC East, the 2-1 New York Jets, traveling to Nashville for a tilt against the 2-1 Titans in their sole AFC South match this year.  Locker has been improving in his first year as a full time starter but Chris Johnson’s yards per carry are down.  Last week the Jets’ rookie QB outplayed Buffalo’s rookie with the result being a win. T. Rex has the defense playing well and Cromartie has filled in very nicely as their top CB post Revis. Jets rookie QB Geno Smith is improving quickly. These teams appear to be very evenly matched yet the Jets are listed at an attractive 33-20 despite the apparent strength of the AFC East hence they get the nod.    

Selection:  (33/20) New York Jets (+3.5)  

3) 09/29/13 - (4/5) Dallas (-2.0) AT (21/20) San Diego (+2.0)

The next game of our tertiary selections section pits the Cowboys against San Diego out on the west coast. Dallas is 2-1 while the Chargers are 1-2 however the two Cowboy wins over the Giants and the Rams were against teams playing extremely poorly so far this year.  On the other hand all 3 of San Diego’s games have been decided by 3 points including a tough home loss to Houston and a last minute road loss in Nashville. Dallas will likely win the NFC East this year but Romo always makes it interesting with his momentary lapses of reason whereas the Chargers are already two games down in the AFC West and cannot afford lose any more winnable games if they want to be playing in January.  It seems skillful to take the odds and the points at home this Sunday.

Selection:  (21/20) San Diego Chargers (+2.0)  

3) 09/29/13 - (13/10) Minnesota (+3.0) AT (4/6) Pittsburgh (-3.0)

In the last game of our tertiary selections section Matt Cassel finally gets the start that was inevitable the day he signed for more money, and more guaranteed money, than the “official starter” Ponder in London Town. He took the Chiefs to the playoffs his first year in KC and doubtless wished to do the same for Minnesota. Sitting on the bench watching Ponder flounder to an 0-3 start cannot have been easy for Matthew as the Vikings now face a tough uphill battle to make it into the post season for the third straight year already 3 games down to Da Bears.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing fairly well ranking 5^th in total yards and 3^rd against the pass however penalties and bad calls have cost them dearly.  Big Ben has underperformed significantly, literally dropping the ball last week; however he should be given the benefit of the doubt based on past performances.  The Steelers will turn it around (and turn it over less) and start winning some games, eventually.  We see AP as being the difference in this game as Cassel will revitalize the passing game and give Adrian that little bit of extra space he needs to rush for big yards.

Selection:  (13/10) Minnesota Vikings (+3.0)

Other Selections

Second to last on our new format is where we offer an indeterminate number of picks we see as too predictable to ignore but are at an unfavorable yet still playable price. They are not numbered.

09/29/13 - (13/10) Chicago (+3.0) AT (4/6) Detroit (-3.0)

It is our observation that the Bears have been winning above their station thus far this year.  A Bengals red zone turnover led to Chicago’s win in their opener while they beat Minnesota’s terrible, even worse than Cutler, QB at home (Ponder) by a single point and then a directionless 0-3 Steelers team last week aided by favorable calls, a touchdown that wasn’t and Big Ben literally dropping the ball.  Detroit on the other hand lost a heartbreaker on an end-of-the game turnover to Arizona in Week 2, dispatched Minnesota (in Minneapolis) with ease and knocked off RGIII and the Redskins in Washington.  The Lions are playing more disciplined of late, esp. Stafford and Suh, and Calvin Johnson loves beating Chicago.

Selection:  (4/6) Detroit Lions (-3.0)

09/29/13 - (1/4) Indianapolis (-8.0) AT (3/1) Jacksonville (+8.0)

Jacksonville has been playing abominable while Indy’s Andrew Luck is well on his way to asserting himself as the top young QB in the league. Indianapolis is looking every bit a playoff team whereas it appears that the only thing the Jags will be competing for is the number 1 draft pick.  25 cents on the dollar looks very generous in this situation and the game will most probably not be close. 

Selection:  (1/4) Indianapolis Colts (-8.0)

09/29/13 - (33/20) New York (+4.0) AT (10/19) Kansas City (-4.0)

The Chiefs have handled everything sent their way, due in a large part to the play of Alex Smith, thus far and face the GMen this Sunday.  The Giants are 0-3, Eli is ranked 32^nd at QB, and they are turning the ball over way too much. Bradshaw is sorely missed and they are coming off their worst game in recent memory. Andy Reid has KC playing like a playoff team as all three phases of the team (offense, defense and special teams) are playing up to their potential. We expect KC to lose at some point and NY to start winning but 10/19 for the 3-0 team at home appears very enticing this Sunday.

Selection:  (10/19) Kansas City Chiefs (-4.0)

Longshot Selections

Last on our new selection format is where we offer an indeterminate number of picks we see as fairly unpredictable but believe some sort of angle or edge exists that may decide the outcome. We caution that if they are played it should be for a very small stake.  They are not numbered.

09/29/13 - (33/20) Baltimore (-3.0) AT (13/10) Buffalo (+3.0)

This week the only game we only suggest taking a flyer on is in Orchard Park NY where the Bills host the Ravens on Sunday.  Baltimore’s defense finally showed up last weekend and Flacco hit Smith 5 times in a strong performance against Houston but the Ravens only scored one offensive touchdown, coming in the opening drive of the second half.  Combined with an opening game drubbing by Denver and a squeaker of a victory over Brandon Weeden it is hard to tell just where the Ravens are at in 2013.  Buffalo’s off-season makeover looks pretty good so far. A heartbreaking last-second loss against the Patriots opening day and a gut-check one point victory over the Panthers led up to last weeks 27-20 loss to the Jets in what was by far rookie QB EJ Manuel’s worst start so far. We look for the Bills to keep the AFC East's undefeated streak outside the division alive in a low scoring game.

Selection:  (13/10) Buffalo Bills (+3.0)   

Games to Avoid

Finally on our new format is where we take a brief look at the balance of the games and share our insight as to why we do not believe it is skillful to wager on these games although giving or taking the points may be an option. We see them as too unpredictable or at too unfavorable of a price. They are not listed.

09/29/13 - (23/20) Arizona (+2.5) AT (20/27) Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Tampa Bay is underachieving yet again and is starting a different QB, rookie Mike Glennon, after dropping their first 3 games while Arizona is starting perennial failure Carson Palmer under center.  Arizona did capitalize on a Stafford interception to win a game but lost to a woeful Rams squad and got thumped by the Saints last week. It is not very likely that Glennon will be much worse than Freeman in his first start however it is possible. What we see as not possible is determining which team will play the worst.

09/29/13 - (4/1) Philadelphia (+11.0) AT (1/6) Denver (-11.0)

Denver will probably destroy Philly at home but we see any strategy that plays teams at less than 20 cents on the dollar unsustainable in the long run. It is true that any team can win on any given Sunday as every player in the NFL is very skilled and some times a massive dog does without warning. As it is without warning there is no way to tell hence neither play makes sense.  Feel free to give the points nevertheless.

09/29/13 - (10/19) Washington (-3.5) AT (33/20) Oakland (+3.5)

RGIII has not fully recovered from his ACL injury and needs considerable maturation.  There is no way to predict when (or even if) he will perform at last years level.  Oakland beat the Jaguars, perhaps the least skilled team in the league, and gave Indy a game at least before losing by 17 last week to the Broncos however Pryor, who wasn’t playing very well before his concussion, is out.  Enter Matt Flynn, the QB that teams love to sign and then hate to start.  Flynn will take home $6mm this year and over $5mm next while he sits on the bench for the 6^th straight season.  He may play, he may not.  RGIII may play well, he may not.  Way too many maybes here.